Questions in Chaos

These are turbulent times. Cairo, Madison, and Christchurch all speak to us of stable systems destroyed by social, political, or natural forces. Each of these crises is unique, but they all share the patterns of unpredictability and turbulence. In spite of the personal tragedies they represent, they offer hope because they promise to transcend the problems of the old stability. They are full of fear because they promise to transcend the stability of the old problems. This pattern—of dissolving order and emerging chaos—is becoming rather commonplace these days in every scale of the human system. Individuals, families, neighborhoods, corporations, industries, economies, nations, and global regions are breaking old patterns and evolving toward new ones.

Other people write about the reasons for such massive disruption. Still others praise the one or rant against the other. Though my personal views are strong, human systems dynamics and its study of systemic patterns are without opinion. As Royce Holladay says, “There ain’t no naughty or nice” that we can know. One situation might seem better for system sustainability and health, but we cannot know for sure. In a trivial but familiar example, it might be a stroke of bad luck to be sick, but if the sickness keeps me from some fate even more dire, then it seems like a pretty good thing.

Even if I could collect all the data in the world, I cannot know whether a particular pattern will be positive or negative because the character of a pattern may depend on events in the past that I cannot know. Fitness might be determined by a shift in some invisible variable at another place in the system. Success might be completely redefined by new patterns and opportunities that emerge in the distant future. We cannot know in a given moment which disruption will result in new, more productive patterns; which ones will remain locked in chaos; or which ones will settle into a stability that is worse than the one that preceded it.

Even if no one can know, some of us still have the responsibility to act. In the most turbulent situations, parents care for their children; leaders speak and act on behalf of others; clerics defend and protect beliefs; professionals contribute their skills and knowledge. Everyone takes action without full knowledge of the present and without any certainty about the future.

How do we bridge between our confusion and our action? With good questions. Here are three sets of questions, drawn from HSD theory and practice, that we can ask ourselves in the midst of chaos to help inform action.

• What patterns are beginning to emerge?
• So what would the world be like if those patterns were amplified?
• Now what actions can I take to amplify (or damp) the patterns as they emerge?

Based on news stories in the West, as the demonstrations in Cairo slowed down, two distinct patterns emerged. People formed work groups to clean up the litter that had been left in the square. Men brutally attacked women who had stood beside them in protest. Both of these patterns emerged from the chaos, and individuals have a choice about which of those patterns they choose to reinforce and which to denounce.

• What of these many changes are likely to affect me (us)?
• So what difference will those changes make to me and those I care about?
• Now what can I do to respond in ways that may use the change in positive ways?

As strange as it might appear to political activists in the West, the Egyptian military was seen as the strongest force for justice in a time of turbulence. In their public statements, military leadership echoed these three questions as they searched for ways to support the new world without losing all the benefits of the old.

• What are my options for action?
• So what are the possible implications of each of those options?
• Now what will I do, and how will I know whether it worked?

Facebook fueled the dissent with information about who, what, when and where. When the internet was shut down, people found new ways to collect and share intelligence. At each point, individual people were exploring what was possible and taking action to use the resources and opportunities that were open to them. They chose to take action and to adapt when another option looked better.

These sets of questions are based on what we call Adaptive Action—What? So what? Now what? This cycle of questions can inform action, even in the most difficult and turbulent times. Repeated moment to moment or crisis to crisis, these questions support adaptive decision making and responsible action. Whether conscious or not, many brave and gifted people all over the world have taken adaptive action in the past few weeks, and the emergent patterns show great promise. But we cannot know. We can only ask:

• What sense can we make of the news that we hear?
• So what can the emerging patterns tell us about what it means to be human in the 21st century?
• Now what can I do to build my own adaptive capacity to prepare for the future unknown?

For more information about HSD and adaptive action, visit our website at www.hsdinstitute.org or visit our social network site at www.hsdcommunity.ning.com.

Glenda Eoyang, Ph.D.
Executive Director
Human Systems Dynamics Institute